The Tulip Bubble.

The Tulip Mania was an event in 17th century, representing one of the earliest financial bubble dubbed the Tulip Crash. The rare tulip bulb known as "Semper Augustus" was said to have been speculated at an exorbitantly insane price until it collapsed. This story was passed on as a common knowledge, a true example of an exagerated tale where people brags and talks about it loudly. But very few really dugged deep to explain why.

This account is best understood if one knows the concept of futures trading in the context of that same period of 17th Century. Futures contracts were then defined as gambling debts. As such, the issue accelerated when enforcement of these contracts (gambling debts) were not guaranteed by the court. It was a long standing practice during those time for the court not to enforce repayment of gambling debts. The tulip sales under futures contracts were considered bets under Roman law. 

What is interesting to note here, is the reality that there was a market. The market of tulips were not made up of the rare "Semper Augustus" tulip bulb alone. The regular tulips were also being traded in the real market and people buy it for their own purpose. The tulip in itself was deemed a luxurious item to have for the rare one while the regular tulips are sold at their ordinary prices. If you are trading real tulips in the real market, you are more likely unaffected. But if you are trading futures contracts on what is known as their early version of exchange, then you are not trading real world tulips but are instead gambling on a future value, and are more likely the ones who cried foul based on your own doing.

The bubble wasn't really so great as what everyone preached it was. It isn't widespread, and for people telling the story, it was far easier to believe the crash in the first place. What they are not telling you, is that the price of tulips stabilised right after the event to its original price. It is worthy to note here the difference between the spot price and the unexercised strike price. These are simply the real traded price versus the speculated value that never traded at all. And if it ever did, it could be in few pieces in itself (the rare one) - not a real representation of the genuine general market of tulips. People want to boast and talk about the peak while ignoring the rest and never spend time understanding it - and this is known as the common knowledge problem.

In today's cryptocurrency market, there are similarities but not entirely as a whole. Take for instance the following:

If you are trading BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, BCH, EOS, Binance Coin, at an exorbitantly crazy prices without real world use cases, then it is a plain speculation - gambling by design. This is comparable to the futures contract deemed as gambling debts in the Tulip Bubble Era. When it collapses, news will be widespread that billions of dollars have been wiped out. The reality is that, those that will be wiped out were all speculated in the first place, and may not have been traded as a realized gain after all. Instead, it has purely resided on its virtual world of casino style gambling houses (CryptoCurrency Exchanges). It is the gamblers who will be affected, will cry foul, and will make headline for sure. 

And just like the Tulip that moved on, still being sold to date. The life of Bitcoin will move on, in the form of Bitcoin SV (BSV) as the real trade happens on the real world, where real businesses are built, and real use cases are deployed. That is why Bitcoin (SV) is building the world's first global ledger aimed to subsume the Internet. That is why it is building the MetaNet. You just don't understand it yet, in the same manner that you don't understand the Internet in its early days. And that is the truth, the clear similarities and differences between the Tulip Mania and Crypto Currency Market we are in today.

The moral:

-Stay away from gambling known as speculative trading. You will cry foul when they all crashes down to zero.

-Stay away from all CryptoCurriences without use. If they can't scale, they can't be useful as public blockchain. They won't last long.

-Be always prepared for Government Intervention. When the government reaches out, stay safe with a Government friendly System. Most cryptocurrencies being traded today are either illegal securities or that which elicits criminal behaviors. The Government can only protect you if it is legal.

-Common knowledge is not always the same as true knowledge. Don't just follow the crowd. You must understand the tragedy of the commons.

-Contract is a Contract, if it can't be enforced, there will be chaos. Welcome to Smart Contracts powered by Bitoin (SV).

Reference: https://craigwright.net/blog/philosophy/tulips-and-other-myths/

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Author Vicar Calsado
Published Jul 27, 2019
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